Running Out of Taiwanese?

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Taiwan's Fertility Rate Will Be Less Than 1 This Year
2010/08/17

Taipei, Aug. 17, 2010 (CENS)--Due to the effect of the year of tiger and lone bird on the Chinese calendar, Taiwan`s fertility rate will drop below 1, to 0.94, this year, the lowest worldwide, as a result of which the local population will stop growing in 2022 and begin to decrease from 2023, four years ahead of the original forecast, reported the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) yesterday (Aug. 16).

The CEPD, however, also predicted that the fertility rate, or the average number of offspring born to local women during their reproductive years of 15-49, will climb back to 1.3 by 2060.



The forecast is based on a demographic survey carried out by the CEPD once every two years. Chen Shih-chang, chief of CEPD`s Department of Manpower Planning, pointed out that Taiwan will become an aged society in 2017, when the share of its population aged 65 and higher will hit 14%, the threshold for such society according to international definition. Aged citizens will account for 42% of the total population in 50 years, according to Chen.



The trend of decreasing offspring, said Chen, will impact the operation of kindergartens, elementary schools, and junior highs. The number of freshmen at junior highs will plunge 29% by 2020 from the current level and the number of college students will plummet by 43% by 2030 from the current level. Chen noted that fewer and fewer members of the younger generation will have to support a larger and larger older generation. At present, every 100 productive people aged 15-64 have to support 36 dependents, including senior citizen aged over 65 and children aged under 15. The amount of dependents for every 100 productive people will exceed 60% in 2034. (by Philip Liu)